Record-Breaking Year-End Expiry: BTC and ETH Options Hit All-Time High

The crypto derivatives market just closed the year with a bang—not a whimper. Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts have smashed previous records for their year-end expiry, signaling a massive institutional and speculative bet on where digital assets are headed next.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Forget quiet consolidation. The sheer volume of contracts set to expire points to a market that's anything but asleep. Traders and funds have piled into positions, creating a powder keg of potential volatility as these positions roll off the books. It's the kind of activity that makes traditional year-end portfolio rebalancing look like a leisurely spreadsheet exercise.

What's Driving the Frenzy?

This isn't just random noise. The record-setting expiry reflects a perfect storm of maturing infrastructure, clearer regulatory frameworks (by crypto standards, anyway), and a deepening pool of sophisticated capital. Players are no longer just buying and holding; they're hedging, speculating, and constructing complex strategies that would make a Wall Street quant blush—or finally take notice.

The Implication: A Market Coming of Age

Options are a tool for expressing conviction and managing risk. This record volume means big money has strong opinions on future price direction and is willing to pay for the privilege to bet on it. It transforms crypto from a speculative asset class into a legitimate financial marketplace with its own forward-looking indicators and volatility gauges. Of course, some of those 'sophisticated' bets are probably just leveraged guesses dressed up in financial jargon—a timeless tradition in finance, now with blockchain receipts.

The expiry has passed, but the ripples are just starting. This record books a definitive close to one chapter and forcefully scribbles the opening lines of the next. The market has voted with its capital, and the message is clear: volatility isn't going away, and the big players are here to trade it.

Deribit marks the largest options expiry in history

The options market in 2025 gained influence, as a way to protect from the downside to BTC trading. The yearly event with $28B in total options is the largest in trading history, reflecting the increasing scale of cryptocurrency activity and the effect of institutions and whales. 

The event will affect more than half the open options positions on Deribit. Ahead of the settlement, trading volumes also ROSE due to repositioning. After the settlement, March options are the most influential, accumulating 30% of open interest. 

The options expire at a time when the crypto fear and greed index is at 27 points, slightly up from last week’s 21 points. The options accumulation followed an increasingly volatile market for BTC and ETH. 

The leading coins are also pressured by multiple factors, including slow trading during the year-end period, as well as a general loss of positive sentiment. The fourth quarter of 2025 is also one of the worst in crypto history, despite expectations for a year in the green. BTC reached new price records, but quickly broke down, following unexpected market volatility. 

As a result, the options market reflected seller strategies and attempts to protect from a bear market downside. 

Deribit options point to ongoing fears of BTC dip

After repositioning, Deribit options are signaling further expectations of a downside for BTC. During previous options expiry events, most Deribit traders set up put options at $85,000 to $80,000. 

Currently, the most numerous options by strike price are at $75,000, with high levels still available at $80,000 and $85,000. Call options start growing above $90,000, where traders are signaling a return to a potential bull market. 

BTC traded at $88,701.51, remaining in a narrow range for the past month. Despite this, any attempt to break out above $90,000 has invited more selling and long liquidations. The yearly options expiry is also expected to bring more volatility, with some price range anomalies during the low-volume trading period.

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