Bitwise CIO Predicts Strong—But Unspectacular—Decade for Bitcoin
Bitcoin's next chapter won't be a moonshot—it'll be a marathon. That's the take from Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, who paints a picture of steady, institutional-driven growth for the coming ten years.
The Institutional Engine Fires Up
Forget the wild, retail-fueled rallies of the past. The new growth story hinges on massive, slow-moving capital from pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds finally getting comfortable. They're not chasing quick flips; they're building foundational allocations. This creates a durable demand floor that previous cycles lacked.
Maturing, Not Exploding
Expect volatility to dampen, not disappear. Price action will increasingly correlate with macro fundamentals—think inflation data and interest rate decisions—rather than crypto Twitter sentiment. The asset is graduating from a speculative tech bet to a recognized macro hedge, a process that grinds higher rather than pumps.
The Regulatory Reality Check
Widespread ETF adoption was the key that unlocked the institutional vault. Now, the focus shifts to regulatory clarity on custody, staking, and taxation. Progress here will be bureaucratic and slow, but each resolved hurdle removes another barrier for the big money managers—the same folks who still think a 10% annual return is something to write home about.
So, prepare for a decade of powerful, pragmatic advancement. Bitcoin is moving from the fringe to the portfolio, a transition that builds immense value without the need for daily headlines. It's the financial equivalent of watching paint dry—if the paint was quietly becoming a trillion-dollar asset class right before your eyes.
Hougan says 4-year BTC price cycle still matters in people’s minds
Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, claimed that although the four-year bitcoin price cycle is practically dead, the concept still resonates in people’s minds. He appears to believe that this is one of the primary reasons BTC prices have been suppressed this year. He also believes the new ten-year grind has been the reason behind Bitcoin’s lower volatility.
On the other hand, ReserveOne’s Sebastian Bea also observed that humans are predictably irrational. He, therefore, believes it is still somewhat difficult to determine whether the four-year BTC price cycle is truly dead.
However, Ryan Chow, the co-founder of Solv Protocol, explained that the traditional four-year trend is being replaced by more macro-correlated, liquidity-sensitive behavior.
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.”
–Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise
Bea also noted that although the four-year BTC price cycle did not currently make sense, people could continue to react to the market based on this concept. He further noted that the severity of the upside or downside of these market reactions could differ from what typically occurs in a four-year BTC price cycle, as that trend may already have been phased out.
Meanwhile, well-known crypto KOL Alex Wacy recently stated that the four-year cycle has not yet been broken. He emphasized that what has been broken is people’s expectations. He further noted that Optimism has been replaced with plummeting altcoin prices, a lack of hype or altcoin season, and investors are only experiencing dullness and pain.
DTCC to bring $99T of assets on-chain, possibly bringing a new cycle
According to Bea, the announcement of DTCC plans to bring $99 trillion of assets on-chain could usher in a new BTC price cycle. He seems to believe that this massive capital injection could significantly tip the Bitcoin ownership distribution scale, as Chow appears to believe that the 70%-80% crashes will soon be a thing of the past.
Data retrieved from River Financial shows that individuals hold the majority of Bitcoin, around 65.9% as of August 2025. Meanwhile, businesses (6.2%), ETFs & funds (7.8%), and governments (1.5%) hold smaller but growing shares.
Satoshi still holds the highest BTC holdings at 968,000 BTC (~4.6% of the supply), while other entities account for approximately 1.4% of the supply (~287,000 BTC). Notably, 7.6% (~1.58 million BTC) of the BTC supply is lost, and approximately 5.2% (~1.09 million BTC) remains to be mined.
Among the well-known individual bitcoin billionaires are the Winklevoss twins, Tyler and Cameron, who currently hold an estimated 70,000 BTC. The duo reportedly bought $11 million worth of BTC at an average price of $10 per BTC.
VC titan Tim Draper is also another individual with massive BTC holdings. Despite losing 40,000 BTC initially purchased at the Mt. Gox exchange due to hacking, Draper bought 29,656 BTC in 2014 for $18.7 million, at an average of $632 per BTC.
Want your project in front of crypto’s top minds? Feature it in our next industry report, where data meets impact.
