Waymo’s 2026 Target: 1 Million Weekly Rides Signals Autonomous Revolution
Autonomous driving just got a deadline.
The Scale-Up Playbook
Forget gradual expansion. The target—one million trips every seven days—isn't just ambitious; it's a statement of operational dominance. It means fleets scaling exponentially, geographies multiplying, and public trust becoming a tangible metric, not a theoretical hurdle.
Infrastructure or Illusion?
Hitting that number requires more than just more cars. It demands perfect storm logistics: maintenance hubs that never sleep, software updates that deploy seamlessly, and pricing that undercuts human drivers without bleeding cash. The real test isn't the technology—it's the economics.
The Road to a Million
Every ride becomes a data point, every city block a proving ground. The goal transforms from 'can we do this?' to 'how fast can we repeat it?' It's a shift from R&D to ruthless execution, where consistency matters more than breakthroughs.
The Bottom Line
This isn't about building a better taxi service. It's about proving that autonomy can be a utility—reliable, scalable, and ultimately boring. Because when a million weekly rides becomes routine, that's when the real disruption begins. (And when Wall Street finally stops funding 'the next big thing' and starts demanding the first profitable one.)
Wall Street analysts mostly like what they see
“Waymo is furthest along in true driverless deployment,” wrote Edison Yu from Deutsche Bank in early December. He noted the service already runs fully autonomous rides in multiple cities with no safety driver needed for many trips.
Yu did point out concerns about Waymo’s reliance on expensive equipment like lidar sensors, radar, and cameras. He said these high costs and the need for detailed maps could slow down expansion and make each vehicle more expensive.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas agrees the technology works well, but worries about costs compared to Tesla. Tesla uses only cameras with computer learning systems, similar to how a human driver uses their eyes.
Waymo and supporters say using multiple sensors improves reliability and safety.
Safety numbers back this up. Waymo data shows human drivers are five times more likely to crash and cause an injury. The robotaxis have 0.8 crashes per 1 million miles compared to 3.96 for human drivers.
Tesla numbers from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration show seven crashes in 250,000 miles, which equals about 28 crashes per 1 million miles.
Getting permission from city governments remains complicated for both companies. Federal guidelines from NHTSA might be coming.
Public opinion seems to be warming up
An electrical blackout in San Francisco on December 20 created embarrassment for Waymo when its cars got stuck in the streets because traffic lights stopped working. The company says a software fix will prevent this problem.
Still, safety matters most, and Waymo’s strong safety record helps convince cities and passengers to try the service.
A survey from April 2024 found 45% of people thought robotaxis were safe, while 37% disagreed. In cities where Waymo already operates, support jumped to 54% with only 32% opposed.
A July survey in San Francisco showed 67% of residents now support driverless robotaxis, up from 44% in 2023. Overall favorability ratings went from negative 7% in late 2023 to positive 38% in mid-2025.
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