Moreno Reveals: Bitcoin Still in Distribution Phase, Not Accumulation - What It Means for 2026
Bitcoin's big players are still selling—not hoarding. That's the take from crypto analyst Moreno, who argues the flagship cryptocurrency remains stuck in a distribution cycle as 2026 kicks off.
The Accumulation Illusion
Forget the 'digital gold' narrative for a second. Moreno's analysis suggests major holders—often called whales—are methodically offloading assets into retail-driven rallies. It’s classic distribution: smart money exits while hype draws new buyers in. The pattern defies the popular accumulation thesis that has fueled countless bullish forecasts.
Market Mechanics in Play
This isn't about sentiment; it's about on-chain behavior. Distribution phases typically precede significant price corrections or extended consolidation. If Moreno's read is correct, the market faces sustained selling pressure from its largest stakeholders—a headwind that could cap near-term gains despite any positive headlines or ETF inflows. It’s the financial equivalent of a magician distracting you with one hand while the other empties your pocket.
Why This Matters Now
With institutional adoption at an all-time high, the assumption has been that everyone is buying and holding. Moreno's counter-narrative throws cold water on that idea. If distribution persists, it signals that the most informed participants see better opportunities elsewhere or believe current prices are overinflated—a sobering thought for anyone betting the farm on a straight shot to a new all-time high.
The bottom line? In crypto, the 'hold' mantra is often just marketing. Real money moves quietly, and right now, Moreno says it's moving out.
Moreno says Bitcoin is still distributing their assets instead of accumulating
Moreno noted that adjusted data show that large holders are still in distribution mode, and not accumulation. The data also shows a continued drop in whale holdings, alongside falling balances among 100–1,000 BTC addresses, suggesting ETF outflows persist.
Large holders typically make significant changes in the bitcoin price; however, the market structure is adapting with the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become substantial market participants. Aside from questions about whale accumulation, sentiment among long-term BTC holders has improved, as indicated by other onchain metrics.
According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, long-term Bitcoin holders have once again begun buying after suffering the biggest selling period in years. The trend suggests that the recent selling pressure on BTC might be beginning to ease. The recovery of Bitcoin remains tentative, although downside pressure to date hasn’t forced prices back to the sub-$80,000 range seen in November. BTC is currently trading just above the $90,000 mark.
Nonetheless, Bollinger Bands, a key volatility gauge, suggest that a major price swing may be imminent.TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands—the volatility bands set two standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average—have tightened to under $3,500, the narrowest since July.
Back in late July, a Bollinger Band squeeze capped a two-week consolidation between $115,000 and $120,000, marking the start of a three-month price expansion that ranged from $100,000 to $126,000. A similar pattern emerged in late February, with Bitcoin consolidating between $94,000 and $98,000 before a Bollinger Band squeeze preceded a decline to $80,000.
Kim says Bitcoin will surpass $270,000 by February 2026
The social media predictor and self-proclaimed world’s smartest man, Kim, recently predicted that BTC could jump past $270,000 within a month next year. According to reports, the predictor cited both the growth and fragility of fiat currencies as reasons for his optimistic outlook, noting Bitcoin’s historical volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic trends.
The social media personality has made several Bitcoin forecasts in the past that have not held up. He predicted in November that Bitcoin WOULD more than double to $220,000 within 45 days, pledging any future profits toward church construction, yet the price surge never materialized.
In addition to his bullish calls, Kim said BTC could replace the US dollar by 2026, labeling the current low as a short-term, manipulation-driven discount.
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