Is This the End of the Bull Cycle? Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Analysis with BTCC Team
- Bitcoin Breaks Below $100,000 - What's Next?
- How Do We Define a Bear Market?
- The On-Chain Cost Basis Model
- Three Key On-Chain Metrics to Watch
- The Bitcoin Momentum Oscillator (BMO)
- Conclusion: Bear Market or Healthy Correction?
- Frequently Asked Questions
Bitcoin's recent plunge below the psychological $100,000 level has sparked intense debate among investors. Our comprehensive on-chain analysis reveals mixed signals - while some metrics suggest bearish territory, others indicate this might be a healthy correction rather than a full-blown bear market. We examine five key indicators that professional traders are watching closely in November 2025.
Bitcoin Breaks Below $100,000 - What's Next?
After weeks of uncertainty, BTC finally broke below the crucial $100,000 support level that had held strong since May. This development has many investors questioning whether we're entering a new bear market phase. Historical data shows bitcoin bear markets typically see 70%+ drawdowns from all-time highs, while the current correction remains relatively mild at around 30%.
How Do We Define a Bear Market?
There's no universal definition, but we consider a bear market as a period of significant and prolonged price decline. Our analysis compares current conditions to historical bear markets using three frameworks:
- Percentage decline from all-time highs
- Price position relative to on-chain cost basis
- Composite momentum indicators
The chart below shows Bitcoin's drawdowns in previous cycles, with the current 30% drop appearing modest compared to historical bear markets that often saw 70%+ declines.
The On-Chain Cost Basis Model
One effective method identifies bear markets when price sustains below both short-term and long-term holder cost bases. Currently:
- Short-term holder cost basis: $110,410 (red line)
- Long-term holder cost basis: $100,852 (blue line)
With BTC trading below both levels for several weeks, this model suggests we may be entering bearish territory. However, previous cycles show quick recoveries can invalidate these signals.
Three Key On-Chain Metrics to Watch
Our simplified model tracks three fundamental on-chain metrics:
1. Percentage of Supply in Profit
Currently at 65%, below the 75% equilibrium level that typically separates bull and bear markets. This drop often precedes panic selling and deeper corrections.
2. MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)
Now below the critical 1.75 level (+75% profit), which has marked previous bear market entries. Quick recovery above this level WOULD be bullish.
3. Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
Interestingly, SOPR remains above 1, indicating investors aren't realizing significant losses yet - no capitulation visible.
The Bitcoin Momentum Oscillator (BMO)
This composite indicator (ranging from +1 to -1) currently reads -0.33 - showing bearish momentum but not yet extreme fear levels typical of market bottoms.
Conclusion: Bear Market or Healthy Correction?
While some indicators suggest bearish conditions, the absence of capitulation (SOPR >1) leaves room for optimism. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is a temporary correction or the start of a prolonged bear market.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Data sources: Glassnode, CoinMarketCap, TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
What defines a Bitcoin bear market?
We define a bear market as a period of significant (typically 50%+) and prolonged (several months) price decline from recent highs, confirmed by multiple on-chain metrics.
How reliable are these on-chain indicators?
While historically accurate, no indicator is perfect. We recommend using multiple metrics in combination with technical analysis for better reliability.
Should I sell my Bitcoin now?
We can't provide financial advice, but the data shows we're in a correction rather than extreme bear market territory. Many long-term investors use these periods to accumulate.
What price levels should I watch?
The $100,000 psychological level and the $110,410 short-term holder cost basis are key resistance levels. Support appears around $85,000 based on previous accumulation zones.
How does this compare to previous cycles?
Current conditions resemble early-stage corrections in previous bull markets rather than full bear markets, though the situation remains fluid.
