Which Brazilian Stocks Could Benefit from the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal in 2024?

Why the EU-Mercosur Deal Matters for Brazilian Stocks

The EU-Mercosur agreement, decades in the making, promises to slash tariffs and boost trade between Europe and South America. For Brazil, the region’s largest economy, this could mean a windfall for exporters. Analysts at BTCC note that sectors like soybeans, beef, and renewable energy stand to gain the most, given Europe’s demand for sustainable imports. Historical data from TradingView shows similar trade pacts have lifted relevant stocks by 15–30% within a year of implementation.

Top Sectors Set to Benefit

Companies like JBS (meat processing) and SLC Agrícola (soy/corn) are primed to expand exports to Europe. The EU’s strict standards might even incentivize premium pricing for Brazilian non-GMO crops.
Petrobras (oil/gas) and Eletrobras (renewables) could see increased investment as Europe seeks cleaner energy partners. Remember, the EU plans to cut fossil fuel imports by 2030—Brazil’s ethanol and wind energy fill that gap.
Embraer (aviation) and Vale (mining) may secure new contracts, especially in green tech and critical minerals.

Dark Horses: Lesser-Known Winners

Don’t overlook mid-caps like Vibra Energia (biofuels) or Rumo SA (logistics). The deal’s fine print includes infrastructure upgrades, and Rumo’s rail network is key for moving goods to ports. As one São Paulo trader joked, “If Mercosur passes, even the coffee vendors NEAR the stock exchange will cheer.”

Risks and Caveats

Political hurdles remain—France’s farmers still protest the deal, and Brazil’s deforestation policies could trigger last-minute clauses. Plus, currency swings (tracked via TradingView) might eat into profits. This article does not constitute investment advice.

FAQ: Quick Insights on EU-Mercosur and Brazilian Stocks

Which Brazilian ETF covers these sectors best?

The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) holds major players like Vale and Petrobras, but consider sector-specific funds for targeted exposure.

How soon could the deal impact stocks?

Historically, markets price in such deals 3–6 months pre-ratification. Watch for EU parliament votes in Q2 2024.

Could crypto or BTCC benefit indirectly?

Unlikely. BTCC is a crypto exchange, and digital assets aren’t directly tied to Mercosur’s commodity-focused terms.