MSTR Stock’s Unbroken Loss Streak From July to December 2025: The BTC Treasury Bet Backfires?
For six straight months, the share price of MicroStrategy has done nothing but fall—a relentless slide that started in July and stretched right through December. That's the sobering reality facing investors after the software firm doubled down on its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
The Correlation Conundrum
Once hailed as a visionary move, MSTR's massive Bitcoin holdings have now become its anchor. The stock's performance has become almost perfectly tethered to crypto market volatility, turning what was meant to be a strategic advantage into a glaring vulnerability. Every dip in BTC sends MSTR tumbling further, erasing the traditional business metrics from investor view.
A High-Stakes Gamble
The company went all-in, converting its corporate treasury into a de facto Bitcoin investment vehicle. That bold bet captured headlines and speculative capital during the bull run. But in a sustained downturn, the strategy looks less like innovation and more like a corporate treasury playing hedge fund—often a recipe for shareholder heartache.
Market Sentiment Shifts
Wall Street's patience wears thin. Analysts who once praised the asymmetric upside now question the concentration risk. The narrative has flipped from 'future-proofing the balance sheet' to 'why is a software company so exposed to a single, speculative asset?' It's a classic case of a trade becoming the thesis.
Looking Ahead
The coming quarters will test the resolve of both management and shareholders. Does MicroStrategy hold through the pain, believing in the long-term Bitcoin thesis? Or does pressure mount for a strategic pivot? One thing's clear: in the world of corporate finance, putting all your eggs in the crypto basket makes for a nail-biting earnings call—and a stark reminder that sometimes, the 'digital gold' trade just leaves you feeling weighted down.
Extended Selloff Breaks MSTR Stock Rebound Pattern
The monthly figures underline the scale of the decline. MSTR stock shares lost 16.78% in August and another 16.36% in October. Losses picked up speed in November, when the exchange rate fell 34.26%, and followed by a new decline of 14.24 percent in December.
Earlier cycles showed a different behavior. Sharp losses during previous drawdowns have sometimes been followed by strong rebounds. In the bear market of 2022, those declines were punctuated by rallies of more than 40% within a few months. No such rebound occurred in the second half of 2025.
The lack of a recovery period is a definite divergence of the trend of the past trading. The statistics suggest a long-term selling pressure, as opposed to a temporary correction.
According to Google Finance, strategy shares closed at $151.95 on December 31. The stock declined 2.35% on the day. It is decreasing by 11.36% in the last one month, 59.30% in the last six months and by 49.35% over the last year.
Prediction Markets Flag MSCI Risk as MSTR Lags Bitcoin
Data from prediction markets shows increasing uncertainty about the stock. Polymarket indicates that 78% of traders believe Strategy will be dropped from the MSCI index by March 31. The prediction also sounds a caution about the index eligibility in the NEAR term.
Source: Polymarket
Bitcoin has been a stronger performer over the same periods. According to CoinMarketCap data, as of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $87,782, up by 0.32% over the past 24 hours. The asset has fallen 5% over the last month, 27.36% over three months and 7% over the past year.
The divergence between Bitcoin and MSTR stock has widened despite continued accumulation. As TronWeekly reported that on December 29, Strategy acquired 1,229 BTC for about $108.8 million. The company currently owns 672,497 BTC, which it bought at a cost of a total of 50.44 billion at an average of $74,997 per Bitcoin.
