Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Overstated? Exchange Data Distorts Trends, Report Reveals

Hold your horses, bulls—that massive whale buying spree might be more mirage than movement.

The Data Dilemma

Fresh analysis cuts through the noise, suggesting exchange metrics have painted a misleading picture of institutional accumulation. On-chain flows get tangled in internal transfers, inflating the apparent appetite of deep-pocketed investors.

Reading Between the Wallets

The report bypasses surface-level headlines, digging into wallet clustering and entity analysis. It finds a significant portion of 'whale' activity stems from exchange custodial shuffling—not fresh capital deployment. A classic case of counting the same satoshi twice.

Narrative vs. Numbers

This isn't just academic; it skewers a core bullish narrative. When the 'smart money' story falters, retail sentiment often follows. Yet, it also highlights a market maturing—where scrutiny trumps hype and data gets dissected, not just devoured.

So next time you hear about whales gobbling up supply, remember: in crypto, sometimes the biggest splash is just someone moving the water from one pool to another. A fitting reminder for an asset class where the only thing more volatile than the price is the certainty of its commentators.

TLDR

• Whale accumulation data is distorted by exchanges pooling funds into large wallets.

• Adjusted data shows whale balances have been steadily declining.

• Addresses with 100–1,000 BTC, including ETF holdings, are also decreasing.

• Long-term holders have resumed accumulation after a major selling phase.

Speculation about large Bitcoin holders aggressively buying has been overstated, according to new analysis from CryptoQuant. The firm’s adjusted on-chain data suggests that recent increases in large wallet balances are mainly due to exchange activity and not genuine investor buying.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explained that many accumulation charts include wallet consolidations performed by exchanges. These consolidations pool small wallets into fewer, larger ones, creating the appearance of whale activity where none exists.

No, whales are not buying enormous amount of Bitcoin.

Most bitcoin whale data out there has been "affected" by exchanges consolidating a lot of their holdings into fewer addresses with larger balances, this is why whales seem to have accumulated a lot of coins recently.

We… pic.twitter.com/dk9XqqckIX

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) January 2, 2026

“Exchange-related transfers are often misinterpreted as whale accumulation,” Moreno said, warning that such errors could mislead investors.

Bitcoin Whale Balances Decline Despite Market Price Holding

When exchange addresses are excluded from the data, the trend is clear: whale wallet balances are declining. This includes addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, a category that captures many ETF-related wallets.

The pattern reflects ongoing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation among large holders. This is occurring even as Bitcoin trades slightly above $90,000, indicating that recent price levels have not driven major reentry from whales.

CryptoQuant noted that the market’s structure has remained largely unchanged. The lack of aggressive whale buying suggests caution still dominates investor behavior.

Long-Term Holders Resume Net Accumulation

While whales appear to be distributing, long-term holders have quietly begun to accumulate Bitcoin again. According to VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, this shift follows what he called the group’s largest selling event since 2019.

Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have turned net positive, a trend that may reduce some of the selling pressure in the market. Though prices have not fully recovered, the absence of further sharp declines is being seen as a sign of potential stabilization.

Bitcoin has avoided retesting its November lows below $80,000 and remains in a relatively tight range just above $90,000.

Exchange Activity Skews Market Perception

The CryptoQuant report emphasizes the need to distinguish between operational activity by exchanges and actual investor trends. Large transfers by exchanges often inflate whale metrics, giving a false sense of renewed accumulation.

When filtered properly, the on-chain data shows that large holders are not re-entering the market in size. Instead, more cautious repositioning appears to be underway, with ETFs also seeing continued outflows.

Analysts recommend that investors rely on adjusted data for a clearer picture of market behavior. Distinguishing between genuine demand and operational movements is essential for making informed decisions.

At present, whale accumulation claims remain overstated, while long-term holder behavior signals a more moderate and steady outlook.