Tesla (TSLA) Stock: HSBC Maintains Sell Rating After Disappointing Delivery Numbers - What It Means for the EV Giant in 2026

HSBC doubles down on its bearish Tesla call, refusing to let a little thing like 'potential' get in the way of cold, hard delivery figures.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Forget the hype—the latest delivery report hit the Street like a cold shower. HSBC analysts, never ones for sugar-coating, saw the miss and immediately reinforced their Sell rating. It's a classic case of execution meeting expectation, and the market isn't smiling.

Pressure Cooker

This isn't just about one quarter. It's about the mounting pressure in an EV market that's getting more crowded by the day. Competition is no longer theoretical—it's in the showroom, and it's eating into the narrative. Tesla's once-unassailable lead now faces real scrutiny with every shipment that falls short.

The 2026 Reality Check

So what's next for the EV pioneer? The sell-side skepticism highlights a brutal truth: growth stories need growth. Promises of autonomy and robotics mean little if the core business of building and selling cars shows cracks. It’s a reminder that on Wall Street, you're only as good as your last delivery number—unless you're a meme stock, but that's a different kind of fantasy altogether.

TLDR

• Tesla delivered 1.64 million EVs in 2025, down 8.6% from 2024, marking the second consecutive year of declining deliveries
• BYD overtook Tesla with over 2.2 million EV deliveries in 2025, establishing China’s lead in the global EV market
• Fourth quarter deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 418,227 units, missing analyst estimates
• HSBC maintained its Sell rating with a $131 price target, citing regional market pressures and rising competition
• Tesla produced 16,000 more vehicles than it delivered in Q4, suggesting expectations for demand improvement in early 2026

Tesla’s delivery numbers for 2025 paint a challenging picture for the EV maker. The company shipped 1.64 million vehicles for the full year, representing an 8.6% decline from the previous year.

Tesla has been toppled by BYD, losing its crown as the No. 1 seller of EVs globally in 2025.

Bloomberg's @EdLudlow recaps the race between Tesla and BYD https://t.co/d064CbqsmT pic.twitter.com/ssroqxyaA8

— Bloomberg (@business) January 4, 2026

This marks the second straight year Tesla has posted lower delivery figures. The trend raises questions about the company’s ability to maintain its position in an increasingly competitive market.

BYD claimed the top spot in global EV deliveries with more than 2.2 million units sold. The Chinese automaker’s lead over Tesla widens the gap between the two companies.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Fourth quarter results proved particularly weak. Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4, down 16% from the same period in 2024.

HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall noted the Q4 figure missed his estimate by 5.2%. The delivery number also came in 1.1% below the company-compiled consensus.

The expiration of $7,500 EV tax credits in the U.S. likely played a role in the shortfall. Tesla’s more affordable Standard models failed to make up for the loss of this incentive.

Regional Market Pressures Mount

Weakness extended beyond American borders. High-frequency data shows soft demand in both Europe and China, two critical markets for EV sales.

Tyndall pointed to the EV market becoming more regionalized. U.S. adoption has slowed while competition in China and Europe continues to intensify.

In Europe, Tesla faces mounting pressure from both local manufacturers and foreign brands. HSBC expects the company to continue losing market share in the region.

Chinese government efforts to reduce price wars and extend trade-in subsidies may boost overall demand. However, these measures don’t necessarily translate to gains for Tesla.

Production Exceeds Deliveries

One data point offers a glimmer of optimism. Tesla produced approximately 434,000 vehicles in Q4, roughly 16,000 more than it delivered.

The production-delivery gap suggests Tesla anticipates stronger demand in the first quarter of 2026. What remains unclear is what factors will drive this expected improvement.

Tyndall noted uncertainty around Q1 catalysts. Without clear drivers, the inventory buildup could become problematic if demand doesn’t materialize.

Energy storage provided a bright spot in an otherwise challenging quarter. Tesla deployed 14.2 GWh in Q4, exceeding HSBC’s forecast by 7.5%.

Analyst Sentiment and Stock Performance

HSBC maintained its Sell rating on the stock with a price target of $131. The firm remains bearish on Tesla’s automotive fundamentals.

The stock fell 2.6% following the delivery announcement. Investors continue to weigh near-term challenges against long-term technology bets.

The average price target of $395.89 implies roughly 10% downside from current levels. Bulls remain optimistic about FSD technology, robotaxi potential, and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Bears focus on the declining delivery trend and competitive pressures. The disconnect between current automotive performance and the company’s lofty valuation persists.

Tesla’s energy storage deployment in Q4 2025 reached 14.2 GWh, coming in 7.5% above HSBC’s expectations for the quarter.