Crypto & Stocks Hold Breath: Jobs Report & Trump Tariff Decision Loom

Markets freeze ahead of twin economic grenades.

The Macro Countdown

All eyes are locked on two data points that could shred portfolios or send them soaring. First, the latest jobs report lands—a key inflation signal that dictates the Fed's next move. Then, a potential tariff decision from the Trump administration threatens to rewrite global trade rules overnight. Traders aren't just watching; they're bracing.

Digital Assets in the Crosshairs

Crypto, forever the high-beta play, faces amplified volatility. A hawkish jobs number could crush risk appetite, while protectionist trade policies might ironically boost crypto's 'digital gold' narrative. It's a bizarre hedge: bet against the system by using the asset class it still doesn't fully understand. The ultimate irony for traditional finance, which still views Bitcoin as a speculative toy while its own foundations get rocked by political whims.

Markets await clarity. Until then, expect sideways churn and sweaty palms. Remember, in finance, 'risk management' is often just a fancy term for hoping your guess is less wrong than the other guy's.

TLDR

• Bitcoin trades sideways near $91,000 as traders await Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs scheduled for January 10
• Polymarket shows only 24% chance the Supreme Court will uphold Trump’s emergency powers to impose tariffs
• Stock futures remain flat on Friday with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq contracts showing little change ahead of jobs report
• December jobs report expected to show 70,000 new payrolls with unemployment rate ticking down to 4.5%
• HSBC forecasts gold could reach $5,050 per ounce in early 2026 due to geopolitical risks and rising government debt

Bitcoin remained steady around $91,000 during Asian trading hours on Friday. Traders are waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court to issue a ruling on President Trump’s tariffs.

The ruling could come as soon as January 10. Markets are watching closely because past tariff announcements have caused short-term price swings in crypto.

Stock futures showed little movement on Friday morning. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 were all nearly unchanged.

Investors are focused on two major events. The first is the December jobs report due Friday morning. The second is the potential Supreme Court decision on tariffs.

Prediction markets suggest low odds of a clear ruling. Polymarket traders assign just a 24% chance the Supreme Court will uphold Trump’s use of emergency powers for tariffs. The president invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose duties.

The jobs report comes after disruptions delayed previous data releases. A federal government shutdown affected the November and October employment numbers. Economists expect about 70,000 new jobs were added in December.

The unemployment rate is forecast to tick slightly lower to 4.5%. This data will help shape Federal Reserve policy decisions. The Fed’s next interest rate meeting is less than three weeks away.

Market Behavior During Tariff Uncertainty

Previous tariff episodes showed unusual patterns for crypto markets. CoinDesk research described the first quarter 2025 tariff period as a “Tariff Tantrum.” Sharp but temporary price drops occurred during that time.

These drops came from liquidation cascades and momentum-based selling. However, they did not reflect broad exits from crypto assets. Trend-following trading strategies performed well by cutting risk early.

Ethereum traded around $3,100 on Friday, down more than 2% over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency posted gains over the past week despite the daily decline.

If the Supreme Court limits Trump’s tariff authority, new uncertainties could emerge. Interactive Brokers economist Jose Torres told CNBC the administration WOULD likely find workarounds. This could push long-term U.S. bond yields higher and tighten global liquidity.

Asian traders appear less concerned about the tariff ruling itself. They are more focused on how long policy uncertainty will continue after any decision.

Gold Forecast and Market Outlook

HSBC issued a forecast for gold prices in early 2026. The bank predicts gold could climb as high as $5,050 per ounce. Geopolitical risk and rising government debt drive this outlook.

The bank warned of potential volatility ahead. A pullback could occur later in 2026 if risks fade or the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance.

All three major U.S. stock indexes are tracking higher for the first full week of 2026. The S&P 500 is up nearly 1% for the week. The Dow has gained about 1.8% while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.

Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of Friday’s data and potential court decision. TRUMP also announced plans for the federal government to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Details around that proposal remain unclear as of Friday morning.