Lucid Group Sales Set to Explode 211% in 18 Months - Here’s the Trigger

Luxury EV maker Lucid Motors faces a make-or-break moment that could redefine its trajectory.

The Catalytic Event

One specific market development stands poised to catapult Lucid's delivery numbers into the stratosphere. Industry analysts point to a perfect storm of supply chain normalization and demand-side catalysts converging simultaneously.

Production Ramp-Up Accelerates

Manufacturing bottlenecks that plagued early deliveries finally show signs of easing. The company's Arizona facility hits stride just as global EV adoption curves steepen beyond conservative projections.

Market Positioning Pays Off

Lucid's premium pricing strategy positions it uniquely as legacy automakers struggle with margin compression. The Air sedan's extended range continues to dominate performance metrics in independent testing.

Wall Street's Reluctant Recognition

Even skeptical analysts acknowledge the potential for exponential growth—though they'll probably still find reasons to downgrade the stock after it doubles. Because nothing satisfies financiers like being fashionably late to the party.

The Lucid Air sedan was introduced in 2022. Image source: Lucid Group.

Lucid Group is betting big on this growth catalyst

In 2016, Lucid announced its first vehicle to begin production: a luxury sedan named the Lucid Air. It took until 2021 for production to actually begin. Initially, these vehicles cost between $140,000 and $170,000. But over time, the price gradually dropped. Today, the Lucid Air starts at around $70,000 -- though certain trims and options can increase this cost to nearly $250,000.

This has been the trouble with Lucid as a company. Sales have grown considerably since the launch of the Lucid Air. But that launch occurred nearly four years ago, and since then, the selling price of this model has trended lower and lower. Competition, meanwhile, has increased immensely, with many other EV companies launching new models and options.

Put simply, Lucid has focused on a single model for years while the competition has continued to expand and diversify. From the start of 2023 through the summer of 2024, Lucid sales were essentially flat.

By the end of 2024, however, revenue was back on the rise, reaching new all-time highs. Now, analysts are expecting heavy growth through the rest of this year and 2026. What changed? The introduction of a new model: the Lucid Gravity.

As a category, sedans have seen a sharp decline in popularity in recent decades in the U.S. The Lucid Gravity, however, is an SUV: one of the most popular types of vehicles today. With its lineup options now doubled, including the addition of a critical vehicle FORM factor, Lucid's sales should grow heavily over the next 18 months. But does that make the stock a buy?

The 2025 Lucid Gravity SUV. Image source: Lucid Group.

Is Lucid stock a buy due to high expected sales growth?

Lucid's rollout for its Gravity SUV has already had setbacks. The company faced immediate production issues, creating problems for buyers looking to purchase certain models online. This causes analysts to continually lower their growth expectations for 2025, even though their longer-term projections remained relatively rosy.

Once production issues are fully resolved, expect sales to grow by double-digit percentages each quarter as analysts expect. There's just one problem: the Lucid Gravity still starts at a price of nearly $80,000, though the company will likely first complete orders of higher-end versions that can easily cost more than $100,000. This hefty price tag will structurally limit the vehicle's popularity.

A look at Tesla's Model X -- a luxury SUV very similar to the Lucid Gravity -- reveals how limited Lucid's market is for this vehicle. Last year, Tesla sold roughly 1.22 million Model Ys and nearly 500,000 Model 3s. Those vehicles have starting prices under $50,000. The Model X, meanwhile, sold roughly 38,000 units globally.

Note, also, that Tesla's Model X has been on the market for nearly a decade, giving Tesla plenty of time to scale production, market share, and delivery infrastructure. In 2015, the first year of Tesla's Model X sales, only 214 units were sold. The second year, around 23,000 units were sold. That means from 2017 to 2024, Tesla's Model X deliveries grew by less than 100%.

Tesla understood that getting affordable vehicles to market was key to its growth. Lucid, however, is still several years away from producing a vehicle like the Model Y or Model 3. So while growth will be impressive in 2025 and 2026, the company is a long way away from replicating Tesla's rise.

With shares trading at 7.3 times sales, Lucid stock looks too expensive despite the expected near-term growth.