Trump Claims Grocery Prices Are ’Falling Rapidly’ – The Data Tells a Different Story

Former President Donald Trump's recent declaration about grocery prices 'falling rapidly' collides head-on with the cold, hard numbers from government trackers. The data doesn't lie—it just tells a much more complicated tale.

The Reality Check from the Aisle

Forget political spin. The actual figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paint a starkly different picture. While some categories show modest relief, the overall trend for the household grocery basket remains stubbornly elevated. The notion of 'rapid' decline simply doesn't hold up under statistical scrutiny.

Where the Numbers Actually Point

Analyzing the data reveals a fragmented market. Certain staples might see a dip, but core essentials continue to command higher prices, squeezing household budgets. This selective deflation, while welcome, is a far cry from the broad-based plunge suggested. It's economic theater, not a fundamental shift—a classic move to reframe a persistent pain point as a policy victory.

The Bottom Line for Your Wallet

Consumers navigating the checkout line know the truth. The data confirms it: the relief, where it exists, is partial and uneven. Until those spreadsheets show a consistent, across-the-board downtrend, the political narrative remains just that—a narrative. It's enough to make you nostalgic for the volatile but transparent pricing of a crypto chart, where the pumps and dumps are at least honest about their intentions.

Key Takeaways

• Grocery prices have climbed during President Donald Trump's administration, contrary to his claim this week that they are "falling rapidly."
  
• Although overall food prices are rising, they are doing so more slowly than they did earlier in the year.
  

President Donald TRUMP says grocery prices are "falling rapidly" under his economic policies, but the government's own data says otherwise.

On Wednesday evening, Trump took to the airways to defend his economic policies, responding to criticism from Democrats and others that the cost of living has risen too quickly under his administration, and has been exacerbated by his tariff campaign. Trump said he is tackling inflation, blamed his predecessor, Joe Biden, for the problem, and singled out groceries as an example of his success.

"Democrat [sic] politicians also sent the cost of groceries soaring, but we are solving that too," Trump said. "The price of a Thanksgiving turkey was down 33 percent compared to the Biden last year. The price of eggs is down 82 percent since March and everything else is falling rapidly and it's not done yet, but boy, are we making progress."

What This Means For Your Finances

If you have noticed your groceries have gotten more expensive this year, the government's consumer price surveys back up your gut feeling with hard data.

Reports on the price of turkey are mixed. An annual report on Thanksgiving prices from the American Farm Bureau lobbying group showed frozen turkey cost $1.34 a pound in 2025, down 16% from 2024. However, the Consumer Price Index category that includes turkey ("Other uncooked poultry including turkey") was up 0.8% in November compared to 2024.

Egg prices are one category that is down, after jumping sky-high in 2024 due to a bird flu pandemic that is now fading.

Still, other items are clearly up quite a bit. Ground beef is up 16% compared to last year, while coffee has risen 35% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Related Education

But grocery inflation is typically measured by combining prices for many products rather than singling out individual items. And overall grocery prices were up 1.9% over the 12 months ending in November, according to the Consumer Price Index. That's down from 2.7% in September, but still above the 1.6% annual growth for grocery prices in November 2024.

In other words, grocery prices are not in fact falling. However they are climbing at a slower pace than earlier in the year.