This State Is a Top Retirement Haven—and Its Housing Market Is About to Get a Major Price Cut

Forget Florida. A new contender is slashing home prices and rewriting the retirement rulebook.

The Affordable Shift

A perfect storm of policy and market forces is brewing. New zoning laws are unlocking land, while a surge in modular home construction is bypassing traditional building bottlenecks. Supply is about to spike.

It's not just about cheaper bricks and mortar. The state's tax-friendly stance—no income tax on Social Security, generous homestead exemptions—acts like a permanent raise for fixed incomes. Compare that to paying fund managers 2% just to watch your portfolio tread water.

The demographic dam is breaking. Baby boomers are hitting peak retirement age, and their migration patterns are clear. They're chasing affordability, mild climates, and community—not just golf courses. This state checks every box, and now the cost of entry is falling.

Local economies are bracing for the boom. Healthcare, leisure, and service sectors are already staffing up. This isn't a speculative bubble; it's a fundamental recalibration of where America's wealth settles down.

The window is closing. Once the secret's out and inventory gets snapped up, today's discount becomes tomorrow's premium. The smart money is moving before the crowd catches on—proving once again that in real estate, the early bird gets the deal, and the latecomer gets the financing.

Key Takeaways

• Home prices in Florida are projected to dip around 2% in 2026, with some Gulf Coast communities potentially seeing declines near 10%.
• Higher homeowners insurance costs and rising HOA fees may offset savings from lower home prices.
• Florida remains a top retirement destination, but retirees must weigh lifestyle benefits against increasing housing-related expenses.

If you've dreamed of retiring in Florida, you're not alone—after all, it offers sunshine, beaches, warm winters, and no state income tax. What's more, home prices in Florida are expected to decline slightly in 2026, offering a window of opportunity for buyers who have been waiting out the market.

Still, rising homeowners insurance costs and increasing home owners association (HOA) fees are still a major consideration for those living on a fixed income. While Florida still checks many boxes for retirees, it’s worth looking closely at both the benefits and the financial realities before packing your bags.

Why Home Prices in Florida Are Declining

According to a the Realtor.com's 2026 national housing forecast, sales prices across Florida's eight largest metro areas will decrease nearly 2% in 2026. Among those eight metro areas, Miami is the only city where home sales prices will increase—and even in the Magic City, sales prices will only rise an estimated 1.1%, according to the forecast. Cities on the Gulf Coast areas, however, are projected to experience drops as high as 10.2%.

This cooling comes after years of rapid appreciation. During the pandemic, demand surged as remote workers, families, and retirees all flooded into the state. Inventory couldn’t keep up, which pushed prices higher at an ultimately unsustainable pace. Today, higher home prices, mortgage rates, and rising costs associated with homeownership have all contributed to the slowing market.

Prices ROSE so much from 2020 through 2023 that these projected declines don't erase those gains. However, for some retirees, a 2% to 10% price drop could still meaningfully improve affordability.

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The True Cost of Living in Florida

While the possibility of lower home prices is appealing, it’s only part of the story. Rising homeowners insurance costs and HOA fees play a major role in affordability.

Homeowners insurance is where many retirees feel the biggest pinch. Due to increased hurricane activity, flood risk, and higher rebuilding costs, insurance companies have raised premiums and, in some cases, pulled out of the state altogether. Florida tops the list for highest homeowners insurance costs, with average annual premiums reaching $7,136. That's nearly three times more than the national average, which is $2,543 annually. (These figures are for a $300,000 home with dwelling coverage and liability and a $1,000 deductible.) 

Important

In Florida, your homeowners insurance bill might be higher than your property taxes.

HOA fees are also rising statewide. Florida has many condos, townhouses, and 55+ developments. While these communities offer great amenities, such as pools, golf courses, fitness centers, and clubs, these conveniences can really add to your monthly expenses. HOA fees in Florida typically range from $100 to $350 per month, with fees up to $800 per month for luxury properties.

Still, the state offers meaningful financial benefits, too. If you're living on Social Security, pensions, or investment income, you'll certainly appreciate the lack of a state income tax. For many, this savings offsets much of the higher housing-related costs.

In addition, Gov. RON DeSantis has recently pushed to eliminate property taxes on owner-occupied homes.

The Bottom Line

Florida remains a top retirement destination for good reason. Sunshine, coastal living, and tax advantages make it an attractive place to enjoy your later years, and the expected dip in home prices in 2026 could finally open the door for retirees who felt priced out during the recent housing surge. Still, a lower purchase price doesn’t make Florida a low-cost state.

High homeowners insurance and rising HOA fees continue to shape the true cost of living, and those numbers shouldn’t be ignored. At the same time, Florida offers many advantages, including a warm climate that allows for year-round, budget-friendly outdoor recreation, from walks on the beach to biking to pickleball. For many retirees, this lifestyle is worth the tradeoffs. With a realistic understanding of the expenses and a clear view of what matters most, Florida can still be a wonderful and fulfilling place to call home.