BTCC Daily (9.1) | Japan 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to 3%, Ethereum ETFs See 11 Straight Trading Days of Net Inflows

Top Highlights

• Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 3% for the first time since 1996. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.78%, intensifying the global bond selloff.

• BTC traded near $78,600. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded single-day net inflows of about $217 million, ending the previous trading day’s net outflow.

• U.S.-Iran military conflict escalated again, pushing Brent crude above $91. Market pricing for a Fed rate hike in September rose to about 66%.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• Eurozone August preliminary CPI

• Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks

• U.S. July JOLTS job openings

• U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI

Macro Headlines

1. Japan 10-year government bond yield touches 3%, global bond selloff intensifies

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 3% for the first time since 1996. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 4.78%, the highest level since early 2025, while long-term bond yields in Germany, France, and the UK also rose. Higher oil prices, expectations of further rate hikes by major central banks, and fiscal financing pressure jointly drove a repricing of global bonds.

2. Fed September rate-hike odds rise to about 66%, markets await employment data

After Warsh delivered hawkish signals at Jackson Hole, interest-rate markets raised pricing for a September rate hike to about 66%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also moved higher. Tonight’s JOLTS job openings and ISM manufacturing data, along with ADP and nonfarm payrolls later this week, will be key inputs for markets to reassess the September policy path.

3. U.S.-Iran conflict heats up again, Brent crude rises above $91

After the U.S. and Iran resumed direct military confrontation, Middle East supply risks intensified again. Brent crude rose above $91, while WTI crude also gained. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels. The renewed strength in energy prices has further increased market concerns over sticky global inflation.

4. China August RatingDog Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.5

China’s August Manufacturing PMI released by RatingDog and S&P Global rose to 51.5 from 50.9 in July, above market expectations of 51.0 and remaining in expansion territory. Output growth reached the fastest pace in three months, new orders accelerated, and new export orders recorded their fastest growth in six months.

5. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rises to 52.7, fastest expansion in more than four years

The Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.9 to 52.7, the highest level since May 2022. New orders recorded the fastest growth since early 2022. Markets are also awaiting tonight’s preliminary Eurozone August CPI data to further assess the European Central Bank’s future rate-hike path.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.15% at 66,215.34. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed up 0.23% at 6,835.80, with Samsung Electronics rising 0.38% and SK Hynix gaining 1.14%. In U.S. premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.7%, S&P 500 futures fell about 0.4%, and Dow futures declined about 0.3%.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 75, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.65 trillion, up about 0.6% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $78,600, up about 0.5% in 24 hours. Today’s trending cryptocurrencies: ARB rose about 31%, while HYPE gained about 5%.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude rose about 1.4% to $91.73 per barrel, while WTI crude rose about 1.5% to $87.09 per barrel. Spot gold fell more than 1% to $4,393.89 per ounce, while spot silver declined about 1.2% to $65.72 per ounce.

(Data as of September 1, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 1, according to Coinglass data, BTC, SPCX, SKHYNIX, SOXL, SOL, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

On September 1, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $77,899 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $76,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.14 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.23 billion. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 17:00 HKT on September 1, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 1.0582, indicating that bulls currently hold a relative advantage.

4. Stock Futures Performance

On September 1, stock contracts were mixed. CRCL led gains with a 5.26% rise, while SNXX and SNDK rose 2.84% and 1.70%, respectively. SOXL and KORU fell 5.15% and 5.45%, respectively. Trading volume increased significantly across the board, with SPCX up 863.41%. In terms of open interest, SPCX rose 23.22%, while CRCL and SKHYNIX fell 17.76% and 9.76%, respectively, showing rapid position adjustments by capital.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to Onchain Lens, a wallet labeled as related to BitMine withdrew 20,000 ETH from FalconX, worth about $49.42 million.

• According to Lookonchain, a whale staked all 488,599 HYPE it held. The address bought at an average price of $35 about five months ago and currently has an unrealized profit of about $23.7 million.

• According to Lookonchain, a whale address deposited a cumulative 70,739 ETH, worth about $174 million, into multiple trading platforms over the past two days.

• On-chain data shows that wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC bought a net total of about 73,300 BTC over the past 60 days, the highest level since April 21.

Blockchain Headlines

• On August 31 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $217 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing about $206 million in net inflows.

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of about $87.6 million over the same period, marking the 11th consecutive trading day of net inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA saw about $59.9 million in net inflows.

• Strategy spent $369.7 million to buy 4,603 BTC between August 24 and August 30, at an average purchase price of $80,318. Its total holdings rose to 845,050 BTC.

• Strive bought 1,800 BTC for about $143 million at an average price of $79,431. Its total holdings increased to 23,156 BTC, making it the fifth-largest listed company by Bitcoin holdings.

• Bitwise’s spot XRP ETF surpassed $500 million in assets about nine months after launch, with net assets of about $507 million after the August 31 close.

• Russia’s first comprehensive crypto-asset regulatory framework officially took effect on September 1. It allows crypto-asset trading, custody, and cross-border settlement through licensed institutions, while continuing to prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies for domestic payments.

• Vietnam’s Decree 284 crypto-asset penalty rules took effect on September 1. Violations such as unlicensed operations may face fines of up to VND 200 million, while some penalties for individuals using overseas unlicensed platforms include a transition period.

• The Monetary Authority of Singapore opened a consultation on legislative amendments to its stablecoin regulatory framework, proposing that regulated stablecoins maintain at least 100% reserve assets and prohibiting interest payments to holders. The consultation runs until October 16.

• PaymentScan data showed that stablecoin payment card spending reached a record $1.076 billion in August, exceeding $1 billion for the second consecutive month. Transaction count reached about 10.67 million, also setting a record.

• In an internal government assessment, South Korea’s Financial Services Commission received a relatively low rating for preparations around its second-stage virtual-asset legislation and stablecoin regulatory framework. Meanwhile, South Korea still plans to begin virtual-asset taxation in January 2027.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• JPMorgan’s trading desk shifted its short-term view to “tactically cautious,” expecting more noticeable market volatility over the next two to three weeks. Key variables include Fed rate-hike risks, concentrated corporate credit issuance after Labor Day, and September seasonality.

• HSBC Asia Chief Economist Fred Neumann said rising Japanese government bond yields reflect both market concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook and the broader rise in global long-term funding costs. Japan’s large public debt means the impact on interest expenses could be more pronounced.

• State Street Investment Management fixed-income strategist Masahiko Loo said Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reaching 3% is closer to rate normalization than a bond-market crisis. The move reflects a broader repricing of the inflation anchor, policy rates, and term premium.

• Bitfinex Alpha said Bitcoin still held key support near $77,100 after macro uncertainty rose. August’s rally was driven mainly by spot buying rather than excessive leverage. However, expectations of further Fed rate hikes may limit the pace of short-term gains.