XRP Price in 2026: Locked Supply, Not Network Usage, Could Fuel the Rally

Forget daily transactions—the real price driver might be gathering dust in escrow.

The Mechanics of Scarcity

Market dynamics often hinge on simple supply and demand. When a significant portion of an asset's total supply is programmatically removed from circulation, the available float shrinks. This artificial scarcity, engineered through smart contracts or institutional custody solutions, can create upward pressure on price independent of the underlying network's utility or transaction volume. It's a fundamental playbook move—reduce sell-side liquidity, and watch the bids climb.

A Tale of Two Metrics

Traditional valuation models for utility tokens focus on adoption: active addresses, settlement volume, and developer activity. Yet, price discovery in crypto markets frequently decouples from these fundamentals. Speculative capital flows can target assets based on narratives of future scarcity long before the network achieves mainstream utility. The market, in its infinite wisdom, sometimes prices the lock-up before it prices the use case—a classic case of the cart before the horse, or in this instance, the vault before the transaction.

Speculation's Favorite Fuel

This creates a potent environment for momentum traders. A clear, predictable schedule of supply reduction provides a tangible catalyst around which bullish narratives can coalesce. It offers a concrete data point in an often abstract ecosystem, giving technical analysts and retail investors alike a story to trade on. It’s the financial equivalent of a countdown clock—and everyone loves a deadline, especially when it points skyward.

Ultimately, markets aren't always rational; they're mechanisms of perception. If enough participants believe locked supply trumps current usage, that belief becomes a self-fulfilling price prophecy—at least until the vaults finally open. After all, on Wall Street and in crypto, a good story about tomorrow's shortage often beats today's boring balance sheet. It’s finance 101, just with more digital wallets and fewer neckties.

TLDR

• Experts believe XRP price in 2026 will depend more on supply lockups than transaction volume.
• Fast settlement on the XRP Ledger reduces the need for large idle XRP holdings.
• DeFi projects like mXRP are targeting up to $10 billion worth of locked XRP.
• The Flare Network aims to lock 5 billion XRP by the middle of 2026.
• XRP-focused ETFs have already accumulated over 500 million XRP.

The ongoing debate within the XRP community has intensified as experts discuss what could influence xrp price in 2026, with recent analysis shifting focus away from transaction volumes and toward factors affecting available supply, lockups, and institutional holdings that reduce circulating tokens but not necessarily trading activity.

Fast Settlement Limits XRP Price Impact

Many XRP holders argue that higher transaction volume on the XRP Ledger will raise XRP price over time. However, analysts highlight that XRP settles transactions in seconds, reducing the need for tokens to stay idle.

THE DEBATE…

What will actually drive XRP’s price?

Popular take: Transaction volume on XRPL

My take: Supply lockup

XRP settles in 3 seconds. Money flows THROUGH it fast.

But DeFi is changing the game:

• mXRP targeting $10B in locked XRP
• Flare targeting 5B XRP by…

— All Things XRP (@XRP_investing) December 28, 2025

This quick settlement limits the impact of transaction activity on the amount of XRP held in circulation. As a result, even with rising usage, there may be limited upward pressure on XRP price based on volume alone.

“Money moves too quickly through the XRPL for volume to drive long-term price,” one analyst said. Thus, the argument linking daily usage to market value is now facing increased scrutiny from industry observers.

Supply Lockup Gains Attention Among Analysts

According to All Things XRP, locked XRP now plays a larger role in shaping market value in 2026 projections. Their analysis points to various initiatives that reduce available supply, potentially influencing XRP price dynamics.

For instance, mXRP DeFi projects are expected to lock up $10 billion worth of XRP in the coming cycle. In parallel, the Flare Network targets a lockup of 5 billion XRP by mid-2026, affecting the total liquid supply.

ETFs focused on XRP have already secured over 500 million tokens, while exchange reserves continue declining. These movements shift attention toward the supply-side equation, raising the case for a possible supply-driven price change.

“XRP is getting locked in systems that don’t trade frequently,” All Things XRP stated in their recent breakdown. This behavior effectively removes XRP from daily trading, even if demand remains unchanged or increases slightly.

Analysts Question Validity of Supply Shock Theory

While proponents push the supply shock thesis, critics argue exchange reserves still contain large volumes of XRP. Recent data shows 15.4 billion XRP remain on 26 trading platforms, led by Upbit, Binance, and Bithumb.

Upbit alone holds 6.25 billion XRP, while Binance follows with 2.52 billion and Bithumb with 1.82 billion. These figures challenge claims that XRP is growing scarce across major exchange networks.

Legal expert Bill Morgan dismissed the idea of a looming supply shock, citing the abundance of circulating tokens. He noted, “Exchange-held XRP equals 15% of total supply and 25% of circulating supply, far from scarce.”

Morgan also challenged the impact of ETFs, which together hold less than 1% of the total XRP supply today. He concluded the market has not met the conditions required for a supply-driven price surge.